Dominica: Why An Election in a Small Caribbean State Could Be Pivotal 

 Analysis. By GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs in Roseau and Washington, DC. 

Most governments allocate 95 percent of their intelligence budgets and attention, and 100 percent of their best thinkers to “the main target”: the threat which causes them most concern. Most governments, then, face “intelligence failures”, “black swan events”, and the lack of preparation for potentially disruptive events which come from neglected quarters. 

So it is unsurprising that the December 6, 2019, general election in the Caribbean state of Dominica garnered no attention in a Washington, DC, obsessed with impeachment hearings designed to bring down a president, or in London (given that Dominica is a Commonwealth state), faced with its own pivotal election on December 12, 2019. But the election in Dominica is critical, because Dominica — population 72,000 — has been the spearhead of much of the People’s Republic of China’s strategic operations in the Caribbean Basin. 

From this base, the PRC has engineered its support for Venezuelan Pres. Nicolás Maduro (even though his Administration has lost much international recognition), Cuba, Bolivia, and elsewhere, and has been used as a major base for intelligence and political operations in the US and elsewhere in the Americas. Mr Skerrit has also worked diligently with the PRC to support Iranian covert activities to circumvent US embargoes. 

It is worth bearing in mind that the UK, Dominica’s principal strategic partner in the Commonwealth, has no High Commission in Dominica; neither does the US have an Embassy. The US was, until Skerrit came to office, the main security partner of Dominica. 

The PRC Embassy, outside the main capital, Roseau, is, however, disproportionately large, and clearly a base for regional operations, particularly by the Ministry of State Security (MSS), Beijing’s national-level intelligence service, conducted away from scrutiny. 

The result of the PRC’s engagement has been, over the 15 years Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit (Dominica Labor Party) has been in office, that Dominica had become the hub of a large network of illegal activities which have funded the effective suppression of anything like democracy on the island. It is for this reason that many foreign political observers and some Dominicans have said that the opposition United Workers Party/Team Dominica (conservative) movement should boycott the December 6, 2019, election as a protest to the advance steps Mr Skerrit, 47, and his team have undertaken to ensure that, regardless of voter intention, he would win a fourth consecutive term in office. 

After all, the opposition had unsuccessfully taken its protests against vote rigging to the courts in past elections which Skerrit has claimed victory. Why should it expect the 2019 elections to be different? Why participate in the charade? After all, the Skerrit Government absolutely rejected the combined report of Joint CARICOM (Caribbean Community), Commonwealth, OAS (Organization of American States) Task Force mission to Dominica, August 6-9, 2019, urging electoral reform and political dialog before any future election. 

Indeed, it is probable that Mr Skerrit called the December 6, 2019, election specifically to head off any requirement to institute reforms which would guarantee a transparent, free and fair election. 

This time, however, the electoral mood is different. Opposition elements in early November requested a meeting with Pres. Charles Savarin to discuss the election. The President would not meet with the Opposition or civic groups, resulting in protestors setting up road blocks — set on fire — to stop traffic from entering the capital, Roseau. 

Many Dominicans took heart from the street protests which had removed Bolivian Pres. Evo Morales, after the October 20, 2019, election,  when it had become clear the election count had been rigged. Morales, who fled to Mexico after resigning, had been a close ally of Skerrit. And Skerrit had also been the main advocate to stop the OAS from imposing sanctions on the Maduro Venezuelan Government. 

The leader of the UWP/Team Dominica opposition, Lennox Linton, indicated that he had rejected calls to boycott the election, despite the reality that the Government clearly indicated its intent to override any calls for reform or transparency in the system, or to allow meaningful international monitoring of the process. A boycott by the opposition would automatically hand a new term to the Skerrit Government, whereas clear evidence of an election which did not satisfy voter intent could not only be addressed (again) in the courts, but also by voter protests and international refusal to accept the election outcome. 

Given the urgent report of the CARICOM-Commonwealth-OAS team, it was likely that, for the first time, the Dominican elections on December 6, 2019, would gather strong international scrutiny. Moreover, there was, by mid-November 2019, strong evidence that the Dominica Police, the only security presence on the island, might no longer follow orders to suppress street protests. 

The opposition, on November 18, 2019, filed legal documents, challenging the Skerrit Government’s arbitrary creation of a nominating date for candidates for the election, and calling for new nominating and election dates. This was critical, given that the Government was attempting to go to the polls with an electoral roll with more names on it than were, in fact, Dominican residents and citizens. The Electoral Commission had announced that it would begin a voter verification exercise in June 2018, but it never began the process. Meanwhile, the Electoral Commission on November 14, 2019, held secret meetings under Skerrit’s Electoral Commissioner, Alick Lawrence, without the Commission candidates representing the opposition parties.  

There was evidence, too, that the Mr Skerrit himself recognized the fragility of his position, and was presiding over a steady outflow of funds from the Government’s coffers to overseas accounts. Mr Skerrit has said that US law enforcement agencies had not been concerned about his actions — based on his residences and operations in the US — but this was being “economical with the truth”. To put it another way, in the event that Mr Skerrit follows Evo Morales’ path, it was unlikely that he could settle in the US. 

Moreover, US media attention to him, and concerns expressed by the Dominican diaspora community in the US, meant that Mr Skerrit’s position was becoming tenuous. 

Significantly, UWP/Team Dominica had gone into an election with a platform which promised to resurrect not only the nation’s credibility, but also to offer hope of creating a diversified economy based on productivity in areas other than the sale of passports.

Gregory R. Copley, AM, GCHT*, FRCGS, FSS, FRSN

President, The International Strategic Studies Association

7 thoughts on “Dominica: Why An Election in a Small Caribbean State Could Be Pivotal 

  1. Herbert Volney says:

    Educated Dominicans scoff at this type of analysis that is far removed from the ground politics that will by the popular will of the people – the essence of democracy, return the Skerrit Administration to Office.
    I reject this analysis.
    Herbert Volney (Retired Judge of the High Court)

  2. Jonathan Y St Jean says:

    Herbert Volney is trying to be an integral part of the corrupt ruling structure in Dominica. The Trinidadians would not stand for his incompetence and slackness thus he was cast out of office.

  3. T Thomas says:

    I am a Dominican living in the United States of America.It is appalling to see the magnitude of corruption in this government.Dominicans it is high time you wake up rise up for truly peaceful change.May almighty god bless our beautiful country.

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